Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems

 

Objective 1

Simulating potential warming of NWM coastal areas by the end of the century

Task 1.1. Evaluate the 2001-2010 MENOR simulations with 2001-2010 T-MedNet data base on high resolution T°C series.

From T-MEDNet we built-up a comprehensive database on coastal thermal regimes across the NWM. The ability of the realistic model MARS3D/MENOR (horizontal resolution of about 1.2 km) to reproduce seasonal variations and warm temperature conditions in the coastal waters is evaluated by comparing MENOR outputs for the years 2001 to 2010 at geographic positions corresponding to the sites where the temperature records are being acquired. Different sets of statistics are used to evaluate the performance of the model such as bias, RMS, variance, correlation.

 

Task 1.2. Run ‘realistic’ simulations of a warmer NW Mediterranean coastal ocean for the end of the XXIst century.

To simulate the potential warming of the NW Mediterranean coastal waters by the end of the XXIst century, we will run specific simulations using MENOR realistic model. The ocean and atmospheric forcings will be issued from NEMO-MED8 through a collaboration with S. Somot (MétéoFrance, CNRM-GAME). Among the potential scenarios, we decided to use the IPCC-A2 climate change scenario. The process leading to realistic simulations is based on the following steps:

a) First, we will evaluate NEMO hindcasts and MENOR hindcasts forced by NEMO comparing models outputs to MENOR hindcasts and T-MedNet high resolution T series.

b) From this evaluation and through statistical analysis on NEMO forecasts, we will then identify the years of the end of the 21st century the most relevant to simulate. These years may reflect significant trends and/or extreme events.

c) The specific NEMO/MENOR forecast simulations will then be run using the appropriate forcings. These simulations will be analysed to build a data base on expected warming and extreme scenarios at regional scale.