Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems

 

Objective 3

To assess potential impacts of climate change on benthic coralligenous assemblages from coastal areas at NWM basin scale

Task 3.1. Evaluate risk of mortality outbreaks and elaborate maps of potential impacts for the conservation of model species by combining temperature scenarios with tolerance functions.

In ClimCARES, we will use an original approach to evaluate risks of mortality outbreaks and to elaborate maps of potential impacts of climate change on benthic species and communities:

a) Step 1. The temperature scenarios will be qualified depending on tolerance functions for each species and each cell considering 3 classes: lethal, critical, favorable.

b) Step 2. The resulting information will be crossed with data base on species distribution including depth ranges.

c) Step 3. The potential risks/impacts will be assessed at specific as well as multi-specific level at regional scale. Evaluating likelihood and degree of mortality across different scenarios, we will explore mid to long term impacts, such as shift down of depth distribution.

 

Task 3.2. Transpose this methodology to present conditions, for the development of a pilot early warning system on positive temperature anomalies.

Previmer products (MENOR operational daily outputs and surface observations) will be retrieved and processed weekly for the calculation of current conditions compared to reference data archives. The early warning system will provide near real time detection of positive temperature anomalies at regional scale.Figure provisoire, il faut encore